The headline pretty much says it all Barry Bonds Jersey , so , but I am obligated to type something."WhiteFanposts Fanshots Sections Houston Astros NewsGame ThreadsHouston Astros Minor LeaguesAstros Game DayPodcastsAstros Hot StoveI don’t want Nelson Cruz for the Astros, and here’s whyNew,40commentsThe headline pretty much says it all, so there’s not much point in summarizing here, but I am obligated to type something. the one writing the article, so there. Let’s pretend that the number is $40 million, for the sake of progressing this narrative.)Should the Astros commit half of their available funds to one player, and at a position that is probably 4th or 5th on their list of “needs”?Nah. The leftover $20M is not enough to address gaping holes in the rotation and at catcher, not even to mention the question mark in Left Field.Reason #2: FlexibilityI’m not talking yoga here, but rather manager A.J. Hinch’s penchant for moving parts around to give guys days off and to maximize player splits versus particular pitchers.on record as being bullish for White, but my liking of him is rooted in his own performance and background.Though Tyler White is only projected for 112 wRC+, there’s some uncertainty baked into that, as the calculation is influenced by his 2016 81 wRC+. In 66 games last year, he had a 144 wRC+ (better than Cruz’ 134 by a healthy margin, though in a smaller sample). If the Astros believe that White is even capable of posting a 125 wRC+ next season (and really, there is no fact-based reason to think he can’t, or won’t), then WHY would anybody consider Cruz a healthy investment for the club?Keep in mind that expecting better than 125 wRC+ from Cruz is unrealistic due to his age and history of other players the same age.And keep in mind that a 125 wRC+ would actually be a reasonable step down from White’s 2018, and he can be considered in his physical prime.If one wants to argue that the Astros should play White at 1B instead of Gurriel, that’s fine, but it doesn’t solve the other issues raised above, and it also raises another: what to do with Gurriel? If he isn’t playing first base or DH, he has no value with the club, as the roving infielder position is now held by recently-acquired Aledmys Diaz, a better hitter that can actually play shortstop. Gurriel has little trade value and the Astros are highly unlikely to release him after acquiring Diaz, one of his good friends, and so we can’t just wish Cruz and White into the same lineup by hand-waving Gurriel away.ConclusionThere you have it.Nelson Cruz is a good hitter of baseballs, and will probably be good next year too.The crux of my hesitation for the Astros to sign him comes down to this:The (totally debatable, and not certain) upgrade from Tyler White to Cruz is not nearly worth paying 40 times White’s salary, when that money is desperately needed to fill out other positions on the field of higher need.Think I’m wrong? Come at me in the comments.The Boss’ RebuttalTrue picture of bilbos, managing editor of the Crawfish BoxesLao Tzu once said, “He is a fool who cannot hide his wisdom.” How much greater therefore it is to be the fool who cannot hide his foolishness. Yet here I am arguing with CRPerry, of whom, I used to think, the CR stood for Crawfish. Mr. TCB himself, Crawfish Perry.(A warm welcome back.I literally love you)Oh well Madison Bumgarner Jersey , Here I go.I start with my own caveat.In my article about Cruz I never actually came out and said the Astros should sign him.I did not start my research with that assumption. But looking at his underlying fundamentals I did come away with the belief that he could make crucial contributions to the Astros for the two years for which they would probably have to sign him.Let me take on Perry’s arguments one by one.Reason #1: MoolahI think Perry’s cost estimate is a little high. According to MLB Trade Rumors Cruz should cost, not $20 million/year, but $30 million for two; $15 mil/year.Not cheap, but if he can produce last year’s fWAR of 2.5, that comes to $6 million/WAR. That’s generally considered pretty cheap.I will address opportunity cost when we get to White.Reason #2: FlexibilityI have no answer to this.When I wrote my article Marwin Gonzalez was clearly out, and there was no Aledmys Diaz on the roster. I assumed that Cruz would DH most days, White would play first base most days, and Gurriel would be the utility infielder. I still like this arrangement. Now, if Cruz were acquired, it takes AB’s away from White and/or Gurriel, assuming Diaz plays some. I don’t like that. I like Cruz and White in the same lineup. Potentially awesome. My first take on the Diaz trade was: Cruz is not coming to Houston. Reason #3: Old AgeForgive me for quoting myself but it looks like the teacher in me has to go into review mode.Although Cruz “only” hit 134 wRC+ in 2018, less than his previous three years which were near or above 150, he had a low BABIP of .264, and although I don’t know if the chicken or the egg comes first, I do know that a low BABIP comes before a low batting average.Especially when we see that our subject was still crushing the ball.In his best year according to production statistics, 2015, the average exit velocity on Cruz’ batted balls was 92.4, 4th in the league.Last year it was 93.9, 2nd in the league. His xwOBA improved .12 in 2018 from 2015, and was ranked 7th best in MLB. Considering his low BABIP in 2018 and that his xwOBA was .34 ABOVE his actual wOBA, I concluded in my article that regression for Cruz would pull his production numbers in 2019 higher. See chart:Cruz Exit Velocity and xwOBA, 2015-2018Yearavg exit veloMLB rankxwOBAMLB rankwOBAYearavg exit veloMLB rankxwOBAMLB rankwOBASteamer has his wRC+ projected at 132, about the same as last year, as they do his WAR, at 2.4. Considerably better than the 125 Chris guesses.Chris cited seven players in the last eleven years who at age 38 exceeded White’s expected wRC+ for 2019.Well, that’s almost one a year. How about these from the mists of the past.Hank Aaron, age 39, 177 wRC+Ted Williams, age 38, 179 wRC+, Age 40 184, wRC+Joe Morgan, age 39, 143 wRC+Babe Ruth, age 38, 168 wRC+, age 39 Juan Marichal Jersey , 157 wRC+Stan Musial, age 38, 141 wRC+, age 42, 140 wRC+Willie Mays, age 39, 141 wRC+, age 40, 157 wRC+These names are not the product of a systematic search.They were just some names that came to my mind as having had long careers. Yes, these are Hall of Famers, granted, but Cruz is no slouch either, furthermore a definite late bloomer. One might object that these are old-timers, that the game has changed.But the wRC+ statistic compares players to their peers, and at age 42 Stan Musial was still 41 percent better at hitting than his peers in 1962. I might add, these players did not have the advantage of the science of modern training, of which, they say, Nelson Cruz takes full advantage.And these guys had to play in the field at these advanced ages.Reason #4: White???????????????????????????????I am often accused of being an emotion based abject sentimentalist by readers of this blog, and not without reason. I love Tyler White. Who wouldn’t? A pudgy, seeming non-athlete, 33rd round draft pick from Hillbilly University, overcomes pedigreed competition to become a slugger 44% better than the average player in the best league in the world, all through sheer grit and determination.He’s become the SHARK of major league baseball, and all at league minimum salary. Plus late inning home run heroics. What a story. He has earned a place on the opening day lineup. But one of the arguments I used in my article on Cruz was that Cruz brought insurance if White fails.And White certainly might.Despite his 144 wRC+ in 2018, Steamer only projects White to hit 112 in 2019. Well Golllllly, that just happens to be his career wRC+. Anyone can guess that. Truth is, it is almost impossible to project White, and there’s no fact based reason to assume that he will hit 125.Here’s why.He has had a history of starting strong, and finishing abysmally.We all fell in love with White when he was named player of the week the first week of 2016, his first week in the major leagues. He continued to hit strongly for about a month, and then he nosedived, finishing the year with an 81 wRC+ and a -0.2 WAR before being sent back to AAA.In 2018 he indeed hit 144 wRC+ after coming up in June, but at the end of the year he again cratered. In September he slashed .226/298/.319 for a wRC+ of 86.In his last fifteen games it was worse, .170/.245/.234 and a wRC+ of 37. In 2018 post season he did manage a 106 wRC+ with two singles and a double in 18 PA’s.So which White will we see for a whole season? I don’t know and I think the only fact based answer is no one does, even beyond the usual uncertainty that surrounds all baseball projections. Is he just streaky, or is he slow to adjust to the adjustments that pitchers make? Again http://www.giantsfanproshop.com/authentic-evan-longoria-jersey , who knows? I could easily guess that White is no better than Evan Gattis, who had one great month last year but was invisible before and after. White has not yet proven that he is not just another Astros black hole at DH. But maybe he will be the fairy tale slugger we have seen in glimpses and all want to be real. That could also happen.So saying Cruz does not add enough value compared to White to justify the opportunity cost is fallacious, because the inconsistency and small sample size of White’s career makes his value indeterminable.ConclusionIn my ideal world I’d like to see White, Gurriel and Cruz all getting regular at bats, with the expectation that at least two of the three will create Cruz like numbers in 2019, Cruz being the most likely of the three to do so of course. Imagine a healthy Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, George Springer, (these guys alone could hit 110 home runs) along with THE SHARK and Cruz? Add a Grandal or Ramos at catcher. Big Orange Machine anyone?(Of course I didn’t leave much money for a pitcher)But with Diaz now set to assume the utility role, to have Cruz would likely require the trade of either White or Gurriel, neither of whom, I believe, have much trade value. Which, if true,just proves my point, that no team is willing to bet on White coming close to Cruz-like production.Cruz or no Cruz, White might break out this year, and watching him will be one of the fun things to do in 2019....I hope.And no doubt the Astros can take the $15 million they would save on Cruz and spend it on something else really good, even if White doesn’t quite pan out.Back in the days when misogyny was acceptable, men had a common saying: “Women: you can’t live with them, and you can’t live without them.” I end this piece about the way Perry started it. “Nelson Cruz: you CAN live with him, and you CAN live without him.” NEW YORK (AP) — The new No. 3 is the new No. 1.Major League Baseball says that Bryce Harper has the sport’s top-selling jersey, ending a two-year reign for Aaron Judge’s No. 99.Harper signed a $330 million, 13-year deal with the Philadelphia Phillies this spring, and his new No. 3 jersey set professional sports records for sales in 24 and 48 hours, according to online retailer Fanatics. His fresh get-up has been the top-selling jersey on MLB.com since Jan. 1, 2019.Harper overtook Judge, the New York Yankees‘ 6-foot-7 slugger who had topped the list since his breakout rookie season in 2017.Reigning AL MVP and World Series champion Mookie Betts of the Boston Red Sox is third, two-time AL MVP Mike Trout of the Los Angeles Angels is fourth, and veteran St. Louis Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina is fifth in figures released Thursday.The Chicago Cubs are the only team with two players in the top 10: Javier Baez at seven and Anthony Rizzo at nine.Manny Machado placed 12th, making him the first San Diego Padres player to crack the top 20 since MLB began publicizing it in 2010. Machado signed a $300 million, 10-year deal with San Diego this winter.Now-retired Seattle Mariners outfielder Ichiro Suzuki was 13th.